Navigating Mortgage Rates in 2026: What Moves Them and What You Control

The question I hear most is some version of "Where are rates going?" After more than 25 years in this business, my honest answer is that I don't know, and I'd be wary of anyone who says they do. Mortgage rates can change every day. So instead of a forecast, here's what I can give you: how rates actually get set, which parts of your rate you control, and how to shop without getting burned.

I don't quote rates in articles, because they'd be stale before you finished reading. For today's numbers, check the rate snapshot on my homepage.

When the news says "the Fed cut rates," it means the federal funds rate: the rate banks charge each other to borrow overnight. The St. Louis Fed describes that overnight rate as one that indirectly influences longer-term rates like mortgages. That word "indirectly" matters. A mortgage is priced for 15 or 30 years, not one night, so mortgage rates can move before a Fed meeting, after it, or even in the opposite direction.