How to Read Local Housing Market Trends Without Guessing

Every week someone asks me what the local housing market is doing. I can tell you what I'm hearing from agents and clients, but I'd rather teach you to read the numbers yourself, because the headline version of any market ("hot," "cooling," "crashing") rarely matches the street you want to live on. This article is about how to read local housing market trends: which measures matter, what each one tells you, and where to find the data. I'm not going to quote statistics or predict where prices are headed. Nobody can do that reliably, and the numbers change every month. What I can do is give you a method that works whenever you look.

Before you open a single report, decide what you're trying to learn. The answer changes which numbers you look at:

A metro-wide figure covering everything from condos to acreage tells you very little about a three-bedroom in your school zone or neighborhood. Always narrow the data before you draw conclusions.

What does months of inventory mean?

It compares how many homes are for sale with how many sell each month. For example, 10 homes listed and 2 sales a month equals 5 months of inventory. Lower numbers generally favor sellers and higher numbers generally favor buyers.

Is days on market the same as how long it takes to sell?

Not exactly. TRERC defines it as the days a property is listed until it enters its final pending period, which is the point at which the home is truly off the market. A sale still has to close afterward.

Where can I see local housing trends for free?

Ask your agent for an MLS report for your area, and look at public data from the Houston Association of Realtors and the Texas Real Estate Research Center. County appraisal district websites are free for property records.

Does a county appraised value tell me what a home will sell for?

No. An appraisal district value is a tax valuation. It can be useful background, but recent comparable sales and a lender's appraisal are better guides to what a home is worth in the current market.

Can you tell me where prices are going?

No, and I'd be skeptical of anyone who says they can. I'd rather teach you to read the current numbers and plan around your own finances than guess at a forecast.