Housing Market Trends Buyers and Sellers Should Watch (Not a Forecast)

Every fall I get the same question in a new outfit: "What's the housing market going to do next year?" This article is not a forecast. I don't make them, and I'd be careful with anyone who does. What I can offer is a short list of housing market trends buyers and sellers should watch, and, more important, how each one connects to your own loan. Some of these things you can't control. A few you can, and those are where I'd spend your energy.

Headlines about prices, inventory and rates change fast, and a prediction made today can look wrong by the time you read it. My guide to what moves mortgage rates takes the same approach: explain how the pieces work and what you control, and leave the crystal ball out. If you're deciding whether to act now, my piece on whether now is a good time to buy a house is a better place to start, because it begins with your situation instead of the news.

Two local numbers shape how a negotiation feels: how many homes are for sale in your area and price range, and how long homes sit before they go under contract. They differ by city, by neighborhood, and even by price band and type of home. A statewide or national headline tells you very little about the street you want.

Can you tell me where the housing market is headed?

No, and I won't guess. I can help you understand local conditions with your agent and prepare your finances so you can act when it makes sense for you.

When are the new conforming loan limits announced?

FHFA announces them each year under a permanent formula in federal law. The releases I found were dated in late November. Check FHFA's site for the current ones.

Do property taxes and insurance affect how much I can borrow?

They are part of your monthly housing payment, and lenders weigh your total monthly obligations against your income. So higher taxes or premiums can reduce the loan amount that fits.

Should I wait to buy or sell?

It depends on your goals, your finances and your local market, not on a national headline. I'm happy to talk through your situation with you.